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Episode 1370: Hot to Trout
Date May 1, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about the Hall of Famers Mike Trout just surpassed in WAR (featuring a story about Goose Goslin and Joe Cronin) and Trout’s recent improvements in plate discipline, then answer listener emails about Cody Bellinger’s extreme hot streak, whether most baseball fans notice the rising strikeout rate, a Statcast conspiracy theory, when it makes the most sense to trade Madison Bumgarner (and other players), and the level at which the best pitcher in baseball would be favored to throw a perfect game in every outing, plus a Stat Blast about pitchers hitting in high-leverage situations. Topics * Cody Bellinger's hot streak and best months by WAR * Everyday baseball fans and rising three true outcome rates * Walking after an 0-2 count * Pitches hitting in high leverage situations * The NESN 'Go Zone' * Would it be possible to fabricate Statcast data? * Professional pitchers throwing perfect games at low levels Intro The Stroppies, "Better Than Before" Outro The Bees, "Hot One!" Banter * Sam talked about his article series about Hall of Famers that Mike Trout passed in WAR during the last month. He passed seven Hall of Famers this month including Craig Biggio, Willie McCovey, and Ernie Banks. * Goose Goselin reportedly once threw a 16 pound weight for 30 minutes and could barely throw all season. Joe Cronin lost weight that season and was worn down running to the outfield constantly to retrieve Goselin's short throws. * Mike Trout's continued changes and improvement Email Questions * Mike: "So as Cody Bellinger approaches the truly ridiculous, there's a reasonable chance that he accumulates 3 WAR in a single month. His line is literally Bondsian. When was the last time a player was worth 3 WAR in a single calendar month?" * Joe (Herndon, VA): "Do you think everyday baseball fans, the ones who aren't poring over Fangraphs or baseball Twitter, either know or care about rising three-true-outcomes stats? I can pretty easily imagine that if all I did was watch games, I might have some vague idea but not enough to really care." * Tori: "I am a Giants fan awaiting the ever more seemingly inevitable Bumgarner trade. It seems like local beat writers and radio personas say that Bum’s value will be higher if they wait. So this means that in the off season, people say his value will be higher at the deadline, and mid season they say to wait until the off season. It seems like people are saying their opinion out of both sides of their mouth. Now with his contract up at the end of the year, their only trade option left is at the deadline so this point is moot but essentially I would like to know if it truly would have been more worth while to trade him in the off season or if they are right to wait, since now a trade partner gets him as a rental." * Mark: "The "Go Zone" is something that NESN introduced to Red Sox broadcasts for the first time this Spring. The basic idea of the "Go Zone" is this: whenever a baserunner at first takes a lead, a number and a line appear on screen. As I understand it, the number represents the chance that baserunner would have of being successful if they tried to steal second from their current position. The line represents the point at which the runner's chances reach 80%. What kind of data is NESN using to create the "Go Zone"? As we continued talking about MLB and data collection I told my wife about Statcast, and she raised what is to my mind a much more interesting question, notwithstanding the conspiracy-theory logic underpinning it: what if MLB were simply making up all of its Statcast data? The question we have for the three of you, then, is this: if MLB *were* making up Statcast data in order to impress the quantitatively oriented among us, would we ever be able to tell? And if so, how long would it take us to figure it out?" * Arjune: "Rich Hill's excellent rehab start had my friends and me debating this: say you took the best pitcher in baseball (Scherzer?) and had him pitch a game against a team. What level would that team have to be for Scherzer to be better than 50% to throw a perfect game?" Stat Blast * Sam says that he felt this season more batters had drawn walks after being down 0-2. In 2010 there were 2.7% of 0-2 counts ended in a walk. In 2019 it has risen to 3.1%, but this would not be noticed. * Sam also looks at a variety of statistics regarding leverage index during pitcher at-bats. * There is not any long term trend of changes to leverage index during pitcher at-bats. * In 1930 Phil Collins batted when his team was down by 1 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Collins doubled to drive in the game tying run. * There have only been two pitcher walk-off hits since 1995. Notes * In May of 2008 Lance Berkman was worth 3.12 WAR. Cody Bellinger's WAR in April is 3rd since 2002. * Sam thinks that if Statcast data were fabricated it would be noticed quickly. He felt estimating HR distances would be especially difficult. However Ben thinks that some of the data (launch angle, exit velocity) could be made up to be close to the actual data. * Ben thought that the best MLB pitchers would have a greater than 50% chance of throwing a perfect game against a short season rookie ball or a bad Division 1 college baseball team would. * Based on MLB pitcher OBP a MLB pitcher has near a 7% chance of throwing a perfect game against all MLB pitchers. * Jeff Sullivan got married recently and climbed Mount St. Helens. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1370: Hot to Trout * How many Hall of Famers did Mike Trout pass in April? by Sam Miller * Here's how Mike Trout has gotten even better by David Adler * Mike Trout Is Now an Average Hall of Famer by Jay Jaffe * The phenom by Sam Miller * Top WAR by Month Since 2002 data * Just How Hot Has Cody Bellinger Been? by Devan Fink * Strikeouts Can't Kill Baseball by Ben Lindbergh * From the 10th until it mercifully ends by Sam Miller * An Attempt to Find the Market Price for Wins in July by Dave Cameron * Joakim Soria and the Value of a Postseason Relief Ace by Dave Cameron * Proctor's walk off in the 19th Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes